Trump Endorsed Candidate Takes A Nosedive

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Democrats may have a stronger chance than usual of flipping Texas’s Senate seat in 2026, according to a prominent election analyst who believes Republican nominee Ken Paxton’s political baggage could outweigh the state’s Republican advantage.

During an appearance on CNN, University of Virginia Center for Politics Director Larry Sabato said Democratic state Rep. James Talarico is emerging as a serious contender in a race many had long assumed would favor Republicans. Sabato pointed to a recent Fox News poll showing Talarico narrowly leading Paxton, 51 percent to 48 percent.

Sabato noted that for decades Democrats have predicted they were on the verge of winning a statewide race in Texas, only to fall short. This time, however, he suggested the political environment could be different.

While praising Talarico as a strong candidate, Sabato argued that the biggest factor in the race is Paxton himself. He said the Republican attorney general enters the general election carrying years of legal controversies and ethical questions that could hurt his appeal with independent voters and even some Republicans.

Paxton has faced multiple legal battles during his political career, including a 2015 indictment on state securities fraud charges and a 2023 impeachment by the Republican-controlled Texas House over allegations of misconduct. Although he was later acquitted by the Texas Senate, the controversies have continued to follow him.

Sabato also argued that Paxton’s history has made some major Republican donors hesitant to publicly support his campaign, saying many business leaders are reluctant to associate themselves with a candidate carrying so much political baggage.

Campaign fundraising numbers reflect a significant gap between the candidates. According to campaign finance filings, Talarico has raised roughly $68 million for his campaign, including a record $30 million during the second quarter of the year. Paxton, by comparison, has brought in about $9.2 million.

The race became one of the country’s highest-profile Senate contests after Paxton defeated longtime Sen. John Cornyn in the Republican primary runoff with the endorsement of President Trump. That victory ended Cornyn’s long tenure in the Senate and set up a closely watched general election that could help determine control of the chamber.

Although Texas has remained a reliably Republican state in statewide elections for decades, political observers say Democrats view the contest as one of their best pickup opportunities heading into the 2026 midterm elections, while Republicans remain confident the state will ultimately stay in GOP hands despite growing attention on the race.