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Haley Overtakes DeSantis in Average National Republican Polls

Republican presidential hopeful Nikki Haley has edged out Florida Governor Ron DeSantis in the national polling average by FiveThirtyEight, marking a significant milestone in the 2024 campaign. Nathaniel Rakich, a senior editor and elections analyst at the polling website, reported Haley’s ascent to second place, initially on a platform formerly known as Twitter. He mentioned the variability in polling confidence and the different methods for calculating an average, but 538’s metrics show Haley, a former U.N. Ambassador, now leading.

This development is a first for Haley in this election cycle, underscoring her steady climb in popularity over recent months. Her progress, particularly since August, has been attributed to her impressive performances in several primary debates. Haley, who also served as the Governor of South Carolina, has seen a surge in support.

Meanwhile, DeSantis, who had consistently been in second place and once closely trailed former President Trump, has seen a decline in his national standing, falling to the lower double digits.

Haley’s upward trend is also reflected in The Hill/Decision Desk HQ’s national political average, where she has been in second place since mid-December. In RealClearPolitics’s average, she and DeSantis are virtually tied.

Despite these shifts, Trump maintains a dominant lead in the Republican race, with a substantial 50-point advantage in 538’s national average. He also leads in early-voting states like Iowa and New Hampshire, though Haley is making gains, particularly in New Hampshire.

Looking ahead, Haley and DeSantis are scheduled to participate in a CNN-hosted debate in Iowa, setting the stage for the state’s upcoming caucuses on January 15. Trump, however, will not be attending the debate, opting instead for a town hall event with Fox News.