Trump Gets Bad News From 2 Red States

The Cook Political Report, a nonpartisan election handicapper, has moved both the Texas and Iowa Senate races into the toss-up category, signaling a more competitive midterm landscape for Republicans.

The shift comes as Republicans face different challenges in each state. In Texas, GOP Senate candidate Ken Paxton is dealing with unfavorable polling and questions about whether Republican groups will invest heavily in the race. In Iowa, meanwhile, Democrats appear to be benefiting from broader political changes that could make the traditionally Republican state more competitive than expected.

Jessica Taylor, Senate and governors editor for the Cook Political Report, pointed to polling showing Democratic Texas Senate candidate James Talarico maintaining positive overall approval ratings. Paxton, by comparison, has posted much higher unfavorable ratings and has reportedly performed worse in Republican polling than a generic GOP candidate.

That could create a difficult situation for Republicans heading into the election. The party already spent heavily supporting Sen. John Cornyn in his Senate campaign, raising questions about how much additional money Republican organizations will be willing to put behind Paxton.

The presence of a Libertarian candidate could also complicate the Texas contest. Some Republican voters may not be comfortable supporting Paxton, while others may be unwilling to vote for Talarico. A third-party option could give those voters another choice, potentially making the race even more difficult for Republicans.

Talarico has vulnerabilities of his own, however, and Republicans are expected to focus heavily on some of his past comments. Taylor noted that his remarks about gender and religion could become major targets in GOP advertising.

Republicans are expected to spend millions portraying Talarico as being outside the political mainstream. At the same time, Taylor said his campaign is working to attract voters who have become dissatisfied with the Republican Party.

The Iowa race is changing for different reasons. Cook Political Report is not questioning Republican Rep. Ashley Hinson’s strength as a candidate. Taylor described Hinson as a strong recruit and fundraiser, but said broader political conditions could give Democratic state Rep. Josh Turek an opportunity.

Iowa backed President Donald Trump by 13 points in 2024, making the state’s changing political environment particularly significant. Taylor pointed to competitive congressional races and a governor’s contest that has also become less favorable for Republicans.

Economic concerns could add another complication. Rising fertilizer and diesel costs, along with the impact of tariffs, have created additional pressure on Iowa’s agriculture-dependent economy. Those issues could become important for voters heading into the midterms.

As in Texas, a Libertarian candidate could potentially affect the outcome by drawing votes from Republicans who are dissatisfied with their party’s nominee but are unlikely to support a Democrat.

Democrats still face a difficult path in Iowa, however. Turek will need to raise substantially more money if Democrats hope to turn the race into one of their strongest opportunities. Republican spending aimed at defining him early suggests the GOP is taking the contest seriously.

Taylor also cautioned that neither race should be considered settled. The campaigns have not yet entered the most expensive phase of the election, and current Democratic strength could prove temporary as the midterm campaign develops.

Republicans also maintain a major financial advantage. A recent Supreme Court ruling has further expanded the ability of political parties and campaigns to coordinate fundraising and spending, potentially giving GOP candidates even more resources.

That financial edge could help Republicans rebuild support, but Taylor warned that money may not completely overcome the enthusiasm advantage Democrats currently appear to hold.