Republican Candidates Backstab Trump

Republican candidates are increasingly distancing themselves from President Donald Trump in their midterm campaign advertising, even as the president has pushed to make the elections a referendum on his leadership.

An analysis of broadcast advertising data from AdImpact found that both Republicans and Democrats have significantly reduced references to Trump in their general election commercials compared with their primary campaigns. Instead, candidates are focusing more heavily on economic issues and health care as they attempt to appeal to a broader group of voters.

The shift has been particularly noticeable among Republicans, especially in House races.

During the Republican primaries, Trump appeared in 66% of House GOP campaign advertisements. That figure has dropped dramatically to just 3% in general election advertising.

The change is also evident in Senate contests. Republican Senate candidates included Trump in 77% of their primary advertisements, but only 22% of their general election commercials feature him.

Republican gubernatorial candidates have followed a similar pattern, with references to Trump declining by 34 percentage points.

Democrats have also reduced their reliance on Trump as a campaign issue, although the shift has been less dramatic. His presence in Democratic primary advertisements fell from 45% to 18% during the general election campaign.

Republicans have also scaled back references to several issues closely associated with Trump’s political agenda. Immigration mentions have declined by 20 percentage points in Republican Senate advertisements and 14 points in House campaigns.

References to law enforcement have also decreased. Only 6% of Republican Senate general election advertisements mention the subject, compared with 11% during the primaries, even as references to crime have increased.

The change in advertising strategy comes despite Trump’s repeated efforts to make himself central to the midterm elections. He has encouraged supporters to approach the contests as though his name were directly on the ballot and reportedly pushed Republican candidates to feature him in advertisements during the party’s September midterm convention.

Campaign strategists commonly shift their messaging after primary elections, moving away from appeals to their party’s most loyal supporters and toward issues that could attract independent and undecided voters. However, the scale of the retreat from Trump stands out given how aggressively he has tried to associate himself with the Republican campaigns.

The advertising analysis examined commercials aired before each party’s primary and those broadcast between the primaries and October 26. The separation from Trump could be even more pronounced in advertisements running during the final stretch before Election Day.

The numbers offer a revealing look at the political calculations taking place within the Republican Party. While many GOP officials have avoided publicly challenging Trump over concerns about alienating his supporters, their campaign advertising suggests that some candidates believe a closer association with the president could become a political liability.

For a president who has repeatedly demanded that Republicans embrace his leadership and policies, the growing absence of his name and image from their campaign commercials sends a message that may be difficult to ignore.