Florida GOP Sours On Trump

Florida Republicans are facing growing concerns about the upcoming midterm elections as early voting numbers raise questions about whether the party can generate the turnout needed to maintain its political dominance in the state. Although GOP leaders insist they remain confident, privately, some prominent Republicans are admitting they are increasingly nervous about the possibility of an unexpectedly close election.

The concerns represent a significant shift from earlier expectations. Florida has increasingly become a Republican stronghold, making the possibility of losing major statewide races particularly troubling for party leaders and influential conservatives. A Democratic victory would be an embarrassing setback, especially with President Donald Trump closely associated with the state’s political landscape.

Even Republican Gov. Ron DeSantis has expressed reservations about the voting numbers. Speaking recently, he acknowledged that participation was not reaching the levels Republicans had hoped to see. Much of the attention is focused on the governor’s race, where Republican Byron Donalds is facing Democrat David Jolly. Although most available polling gives Donalds a narrow advantage, the campaign has attracted considerable attention because of the possibility that Democrats could make the contest more competitive than expected.

Donalds has a substantial financial advantage, having raised approximately $176 million compared with Jolly’s $28 million. However, the early voting figures are creating questions about whether money and Republican registration advantages will translate into enough actual votes.

As of Sunday morning, Republicans held only a three-point advantage over Democrats in early ballots cast. That margin is considerably smaller than the Republican lead during the previous two general elections, despite Republicans having an approximately 11-point advantage in voter registration.

Some of the weakest Republican participation has appeared in the Panhandle and rural portions of North Florida. These areas are traditionally conservative, but voting activity has been particularly disappointing in 17 counties that Donalds failed to carry during the Republican primary.

University of Florida political scientist Michael McDonald found that Republican turnout in those counties was running 3.2 percentage points below 2022 levels. In counties Donalds won during the primary, the decline was considerably smaller, at 1.1 percentage points.

Democrats, meanwhile, appear to be making progress with voters who have not always participated consistently in previous elections. Their early and mail-in voting totals have already exceeded their entire 2022 totals in 15 Florida counties. Republicans have reached that milestone in only four counties.

Independent voters are another potential problem for the GOP. Polling has generally shown independents favoring Democratic candidates by substantial margins. If those voters participate at higher rates than expected, Republicans could find themselves facing a much tougher election than anticipated.

Florida’s heavy reliance on early voting makes the numbers especially important. Approximately two-thirds of the state’s electorate typically votes before Election Day, leaving relatively little room for either party to make up ground afterward.

There is also evidence that the traditional Republican Election Day advantage could be smaller this time. Democratic strategist Steve Schale found that roughly 60,000 more Republicans than Democrats who waited until Election Day in 2022 have already voted during the current election cycle. That could mean some of the voters Republicans previously counted on for a strong Election Day showing have already submitted their ballots.

Estimates shared by Democratic and Republican insiders suggest Donalds could potentially begin Election Day as much as 500,000 votes behind. Overcoming that gap could require Republicans to win Election Day voting by a margin of two to one, an ambitious target even for a party that has previously produced substantial advantages on the final day of voting.

Demographic trends are adding to Republican concerns. Black and Hispanic voters are accounting for a growing portion of the early electorate, and available polling suggests both groups are leaning more heavily toward Democrats.

Voting participation also shows differences across racial groups. Among registered Democrats, approximately 50% of white voters, 39% of Black voters and 34% of Hispanic voters have already cast ballots. Among Republicans, the corresponding figures are 35%, 21% and 28%.

Younger voters present another challenge. About 25% of registered Democrats under 30 have voted, compared with just 9% of Republicans in the same age group.

Republican leaders, however, are pushing back against predictions of trouble. The party still maintains a registration advantage of approximately 1.5 million voters statewide and has considerably more financial resources and organizational strength than Florida Democrats.

GOP officials also point to previous elections as evidence that Republicans should not be underestimated. In 2018, despite a nationwide Democratic wave, Florida Republicans managed to hold their ground. DeSantis narrowly won the governor’s race, while Rick Scott secured a Senate victory.

State Republican Party Chairman Evan Power argues that the party has repeatedly demonstrated its ability to produce strong Election Day numbers. He believes some of the anxiety reflects the fact that Florida has not experienced a genuinely tight statewide election in several years.

Nevertheless, the political environment has changed considerably since 2018. Trump’s standing among Republicans has weakened compared with earlier periods, while higher gasoline prices are creating another potential source of frustration among voters.

The concerns extend beyond the governor’s race. Republicans are worried about potentially losing 10 to 15 seats in the Florida House, which could threaten their supermajority. Republican Rep. Maria Elvira Salazar is also facing warning signs in her Miami-area congressional district, where Democrat Eliot Rodriguez is challenging her.

Even some statewide races that Republicans previously considered relatively secure are receiving closer scrutiny. The contests for attorney general, chief financial officer and agriculture commissioner could become more competitive than expected.

There are also questions about whether race could influence voting patterns in some traditionally conservative areas. Donalds and Democratic state Rep. Angie Nixon are both Black candidates, and some Republican strategists have privately expressed concern about the possibility of racial bias affecting their campaigns.

One longtime GOP consultant suggested the election could reveal how much racial prejudice remains among portions of the Republican electorate. The consultant specifically pointed to the counties Donalds struggled to win during the primary.

Conservative commentator Laura Loomer also raised concerns about Donalds’ performance in the Panhandle, arguing that his primary results suggested race could have played a role in voter behavior.

For now, Republican officials are avoiding predictions of disaster. But the early voting figures have clearly unsettled party insiders who expected a much stronger advantage. With major statewide contests, congressional seats and legislative control potentially at stake, Florida Republicans are facing an election that may be far less predictable than they originally anticipated.