Trump Gets Bad News On Tuesday

White House senior trade adviser Peter Navarro urged Americans to temper their expectations ahead of Wednesday’s closely watched monthly jobs report, pointing to the Trump administration’s immigration enforcement policies as a key factor shaping employment numbers.

Speaking Tuesday on Fox Business’s Mornings with Maria, Navarro said the public and financial markets should rethink what constitutes a “strong” jobs report under the current administration.

“The jobs report’s going to come out tomorrow, and we have to significantly revise downward what people think a normal monthly job gain should be,” Navarro said.

According to Navarro, job growth figures that once routinely reached well into six-digit territory during the Biden administration are no longer the appropriate benchmark. Instead, he suggested that monthly gains closer to 50,000 jobs should now be considered healthy and sustainable.

Navarro argued that prior job growth was artificially inflated by high levels of illegal immigration. He claimed that when millions of undocumented immigrants were entering the country each year, the economy needed to generate roughly 200,000 jobs per month simply to maintain balance.

“When we were letting in about 2 million illegal aliens, we had to create massive job numbers just to keep up,” Navarro said. He further alleged that many of the jobs added during the Biden years went to individuals not legally authorized to work in the U.S., while American workers struggled to find employment.

Although immigration levels rose sharply during the previous administration, economists note there is no definitive data that precisely tracks how many jobs are held by unauthorized workers.

Navarro maintained that the situation has now shifted dramatically. With stepped-up deportations and tighter border enforcement, he said the labor market no longer needs to absorb the same volume of workers.

“That’s been completely reversed,” he said, adding that a monthly increase of around 50,000 jobs now reflects what the economy actually requires.

He also cautioned Wall Street against reacting negatively if the upcoming report shows lower-than-expected job gains. The release of the report was delayed earlier this year due to a partial government shutdown, adding to market anticipation.

“When this data comes out, Wall Street can’t panic or rain on the parade,” Navarro said. “They have to factor in that we’re removing millions of illegal workers from the job market.”

Host Maria Bartiromo agreed that Navarro raised an important point, suggesting it sounded like he was bracing for a weak report. Navarro quickly pushed back on that interpretation.

“I’m not expecting a weak number,” he said. “I’m saying that going forward, if we see job growth under 100,000, we shouldn’t wring our hands. We should say that’s the new steady state—and that’s perfectly fine.”

Echoing similar themes, White House National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett said earlier this week that strong economic growth combined with a shrinking labor force could naturally lead to smaller job gains.

In a CNBC interview Monday, Hassett said that as unauthorized workers leave the country and productivity increases, job numbers may appear lower even as the overall economy remains robust.

“This is an unusual set of circumstances,” Hassett said, adding that lower job figures should not automatically be viewed as a sign of economic weakness.