Trump Hit With Bad News

President Trump is facing mounting economic pressure as rising oil prices tied to the conflict with Iran collide with signs of weakness in the U.S. labor market.

Fresh economic data released Friday delivered troubling news for the administration. The latest employment report showed an unexpected drop in jobs during February, while oil prices jumped sharply as tensions in the Middle East intensified.

Even before the United States joined Israel in military operations against Iran, Trump and congressional Republicans were already struggling with low public confidence in their economic leadership. Now, with the conflict entering its second week, the potential financial consequences for the country—and for the GOP heading into midterm elections—are becoming more pronounced.

Higher energy prices tend to ripple through the entire economy, increasing costs for businesses and consumers alike. That often leads to higher inflation and steeper gasoline prices. At the same time, the disappointing employment report might have strengthened Trump’s argument for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. However, the inflationary pressures created by escalating conflict could make the central bank more cautious about loosening monetary policy.

Eugenio Aleman, chief economist at Raymond James, warned that policymakers face a difficult situation. He noted that the Federal Reserve must soon decide on interest rates at a moment when both oil and gasoline prices are climbing—conditions that could push inflation higher.

Aleman suggested this combination could represent one of the most challenging environments for monetary policy, raising renewed fears of “stagflation,” a scenario where slow economic growth coincides with rising prices.

Trump began 2026 hoping to reset the economic narrative after a disappointing year. The United States experienced its weakest job growth outside of a recession since 2003, while inflation remained stubbornly elevated.

Public confidence in the administration’s economic management has remained relatively low. According to a compilation of polls by RealClearPolitics conducted between late January and early March, roughly 40 percent of Americans approve of Trump’s handling of the economy, while nearly 57 percent disapprove.

Those numbers may face further pressure following the February employment report. The data showed the U.S. economy lost 90,000 jobs last month, and the unemployment rate edged upward.

Heather Long, chief economist at Navy Federal Credit Union, said the job market has become increasingly challenging. She noted that employment growth has been essentially stagnant since last April, when the administration announced major tariffs on imported goods. According to Long, many sectors of the economy have begun reducing their workforce.

While Trump has argued that the economy remained strong after his return to office, the figures tell a more complicated story. During 2025, the country added fewer than 50,000 jobs per month on average, and overall employment has declined by about 19,000 positions since May of last year.

Inflation showed modest improvement earlier in the year. The consumer price index indicated that the annual inflation rate dipped to 2.4 percent in January, although it later rose to around 3 percent as tariff-related pressures began affecting prices.

After encouraging economic reports earlier this year, Trump declared that he had effectively “won” the economic debate before shifting his focus toward foreign policy matters.

However, developments overseas are now affecting conditions at home.

Iran has moved to restrict access through the Strait of Hormuz, a narrow but strategically crucial waterway connecting the Persian Gulf to global shipping routes. Roughly one-fifth of the world’s oil supply passes through this corridor, making any disruption there significant for international markets.

Iran’s naval operations have slowed the movement of oil tankers leaving the region, tightening global supply. If the conflict continues, producers in the Persian Gulf could be forced to reduce output as storage facilities fill up, potentially pushing prices higher for an extended period.

Oil markets reacted quickly. By Friday afternoon, West Texas Intermediate crude had climbed above $91 per barrel—an increase of about $10 in a single day. Brent crude, the global benchmark, rose roughly $7 to around $92 per barrel.

Gasoline prices in the United States have also begun rising. Data from AAA showed the national average for regular gasoline reached $3.32 per gallon on Friday, up from $3.25 the day before and $2.98 a week earlier.

Mark Hamrick, a senior economic analyst at Bankrate, described the situation as a new “geopolitical tax” on the economy. Rising costs for oil, fuel, borrowing, and mortgages are adding to existing pressures such as tariffs on imported goods. While the U.S. economy has shown resilience in the past, Hamrick cautioned that the current mix of policy challenges and geopolitical uncertainty could test that strength.

The United States is less vulnerable to oil disruptions than it once was, largely because it became a net exporter of petroleum in 2019. As the world’s largest crude oil producer, higher prices can modestly boost domestic energy output, even though they also reduce spending by consumers facing higher fuel costs.

Administration officials have attempted to reassure the public that economic conditions remain stable. Kevin Hassett, who chairs the White House National Economic Council, suggested the weak February employment report may be an anomaly. He pointed to January’s stronger gain of 126,000 jobs and improving productivity data late last year as signs of underlying economic strength.

Hassett argued that productivity gains can allow the economy to grow without generating large increases in employment.

Energy Secretary Chris Wright also predicted that gasoline prices could begin falling within weeks, not months.

Trump echoed that sentiment, saying he expects fuel prices to decline quickly once the conflict ends. He dismissed concerns about the economic effects of the war, stating that any temporary increase in gasoline prices is less significant than the broader strategic objectives.

Public opinion, however, appears mixed. A Reuters/Ipsos survey conducted earlier this week found that only 27 percent of Americans support the U.S. military action against Iran, while 43 percent oppose it and nearly 30 percent remain undecided.

Another poll from Economist/YouGov showed that just 32 percent of respondents support using military force to overthrow Iran’s government, compared with 45 percent who oppose the idea.

Democratic leaders have sharply criticized the administration’s priorities. Rosemary Boeglin, communications director for the Democratic National Committee, argued that many families are already struggling with rising prices and limited job opportunities.

She said the administration should be focused on strengthening the domestic economy rather than engaging in a prolonged foreign conflict, warning that the current economic challenges are making it harder for ordinary Americans to afford basic necessities such as fuel and stable employment.