Trump Gets Great News Before Elections

American manufacturing expanded for the 10th consecutive month in October, offering a positive sign for the economy ahead of the midterm elections. However, slowing job growth, rising energy costs and declining business confidence suggest the industry still faces significant challenges.

The Institute for Supply Management reported Monday that its manufacturing purchasing managers’ index increased to 55.5% in October, up from 54.5% in September. A reading above 50% indicates expansion.

Four of the five major components of the index improved, including new orders, production, supplier deliveries and inventories. Employment growth, however, slowed by 0.3 percentage points, while business sentiment declined for the third consecutive month. Approximately 66% of comments submitted to the ISM were negative.

Rising costs remain a major concern for manufacturers. Persistent inflation, President Donald Trump’s tariffs and the economic effects of the Iran war have contributed to financial pressure across the industry.

Energy prices have been especially difficult for businesses. Consumer price data showed energy costs rising 5.2% between August and September, leaving them 20.4% higher than a year earlier. Energy commodity prices climbed 35.3% over the same 12-month period.

Trump has repeatedly promised to rebuild American manufacturing, arguing that tariffs will encourage companies to bring production and jobs back to the United States. However, manufacturing employment has yet to show meaningful growth. Federal data indicate the industry had approximately 12.67 million workers when Trump began his second term, compared with roughly 12.65 million in September.

There have been some major investment announcements. Audi recently revealed plans to establish its first U.S. manufacturing facility in Georgia through a $4 billion investment. The automaker expects the project to create approximately 4,500 jobs.

The manufacturing numbers are particularly significant politically because several competitive Senate races are taking place in industrial states, including Michigan, Ohio and Texas. Employment, inflation and the future of American manufacturing could become important issues for voters in those contests.

Democrats need to gain four Senate seats to take control of the chamber, making these races especially important to the balance of power in Washington.

Although October’s report shows continued growth in manufacturing activity, the lack of meaningful job gains and persistent cost pressures raise questions about how much of that expansion is benefiting American workers. Whether Trump’s manufacturing policies can produce a stronger employment recovery could become an important issue as voters head to the polls.