Recent surveys indicate that former President Donald Trump is gaining a significant lead over President Joe Biden in key battleground states, strengthening his prospects for the 2024 presidential election. With the election less than a year away, these findings suggest Trump’s strong chances of winning the Republican nomination and possibly returning to the White House.
In scenarios considering third-party candidates, Trump shows an advantage over Biden in critical states such as Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Arizona, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania, all of which were won by Biden in 2020. Flipping some of these states would be crucial for Trump’s victory in 2024.
Although Biden appears to be trailing in these polls, political analysts emphasize that the political landscape could change considerably in the next 10 months leading up to the election.
A CNN poll underscored Trump’s lead in Georgia and Michigan, narrowly won by Biden in 2020. A significant number of respondents in these states believe Biden’s policies have adversely affected the economy, contrary to the White House’s assertions of strong economic performance.
A Bloomberg News/Morning Consult poll also showed Biden lagging behind Trump in several pivotal swing states, including options for third-party candidates and an ‘other’ candidate choice.
Despite these challenges, Biden’s campaign is focusing on highlighting the achievements of his administration, such as the CHIPS and Science Act and the Inflation Reduction Act. However, Biden is grappling with divisions within his party and a steady approval rating of around 40%.
David Axelrod, a former senior advisor to President Obama, expressed concerns about Biden’s competitiveness against Trump, especially considering his current approval ratings.
Trump, on the other hand, continues to have robust support within the Republican Party, as demonstrated by a recent Iowa poll and his enduring presence despite various legal and political challenges.
Matt Barreto, co-founder of BSP Research, advises caution in giving too much weight to current polls. He notes that as the election nears and focus shifts more towards Trump, it could alter the race’s dynamics.
As 2024 draws closer, both Biden and Trump are preparing for what could be another tightly contested election, with Biden intensifying fundraising activities and Trump solidifying his stance within the Republican Party.